Trump predicts Middle East war could end soon

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that the war in the Middle East could end soon, even as Iran’s hardline factions rallied in support of newly appointed Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, signaling that Tehran is not ready to back down.

The mixed messages sent financial markets on a volatile ride. Oil prices surged while global stocks dropped, before both reversed course after Trump’s remarks and reports suggesting possible easing of sanctions on Russian energy.

Mojtaba Khamenei, 56, a Shi’ite cleric backed by Iran’s powerful security forces and their vast business network, has been rejected by Trump, who is demanding Iran’s unconditional surrender.

Trump said the conflict would continue until Iran is “totally and decisively defeated,” but suggested the end could come soon.

“It’s going to be finished pretty quickly,” he told Republican lawmakers. “We’ve already won in many ways, but we haven’t won enough.”

He did not specify what a clear victory in the war would look like.

Iranian state media broadcast images of large crowds gathering in several cities to show support for the new leader, waving national flags and carrying portraits of his father, Ali Khamenei, who was killed in an Israeli strike on the first day of the war.

In the city of Isfahan, state television reported the sound of nearby explosions as supporters gathered in the historic Imam Square, chanting “God is the Greatest” beneath images of both Ali and Mojtaba Khamenei.

In another show of defiance, Iran’s military announced it would intensify its missile strikes.

Political figures and state institutions also pledged loyalty to the new supreme leader, whose wife, son and mother were reportedly killed at the beginning of the U.S.–Israeli air campaign, according to Iranian state media.

“We will obey the commander-in-chief until the last drop of our blood,” a defence council statement said.

Iranians contacted by phone expressed mixed reactions. Supporters of the government described the leadership change as a bold act of resistance, while critics feared it would crush hopes for reform.

“I am so happy that he is our new leader,” said Zahra Mirbagheri, a 21-year-old university student in Tehran. “It was a slap in the face to our enemies who thought the system would collapse after his father’s death. Our late leader’s path will continue.”

Some Iranians had initially celebrated the elder Khamenei’s death, which came weeks after security forces killed thousands of anti-government protesters during the worst unrest since the 1979 revolution. However, there has been little visible protest activity since the war began, with many activists wary of demonstrating while the country is under attack.

“The Revolutionary Guards and the system are still powerful,” said Babak, a 34-year-old businessman in the central city of Arak who asked that his full name not be used. “They have tens of thousands of forces ready to fight to keep this regime in place. We, the people, have nothing.”

Israel says its goal in the war is to topple Iran’s clerical leadership. U.S. officials have mostly said Washington’s objective is to eliminate Iran’s missile capabilities and nuclear program, though Trump has suggested the war can end only if Iran’s government becomes compliant.

Israel has also warned that it would target whoever succeeded the elder Khamenei unless Iran abandons its hostile policies.

The conflict has effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. Tankers have been unable to pass for more than a week, forcing producers to halt pumping as storage facilities fill up.

Brent crude futures rose about 7% to their highest level since 2022 after surging as much as 29% during the trading session, as Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members cut supplies. Prices later slipped in post-settlement trading.

Gasoline prices carry strong political significance in the United States, where voters rank rising costs among their top concerns ahead of the November midterm elections, when Trump’s Republican Party will try to maintain control of Congress.

After speaking with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump said the United States would waive oil-related sanctions for “some countries” to ease supply shortages. Sources say this could include further easing restrictions on Russian oil exports, potentially complicating efforts to punish Moscow over the war in Ukraine.

Other possible measures include releasing oil from strategic reserves or limiting U.S. energy exports.

Tehran was covered in thick black smoke after an oil refinery was struck, marking an escalation in attacks on Iran’s domestic energy infrastructure. World Health Organization chief Tedros Ghebreyesus warned the fire could contaminate food, water and air.

Turkey said NATO air defenses shot down a ballistic missile fired from Iran that entered Turkish airspace, the second such incident since the war began. Iran did not immediately comment.

Turkey, which borders Iran and has NATO’s second-largest army, warned Tehran over the weekend against further attacks but has not indicated it will formally seek additional alliance protection.

Israel’s military said it had launched new strikes in central Iran and attacked the Lebanese capital, Beirut, expanding its campaign after the Iran-backed militia Hezbollah fired across the border.

According to Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations, U.S. and Israeli strikes have killed at least 1,332 Iranian civilians and wounded thousands more. Lebanon has reported more than 400 deaths, and nearly 700,000 people have fled their homes.

In Israel, emergency workers said a man died from shrapnel wounds at a construction site near Tel Aviv’s international airport, bringing the death toll from Iranian attacks to 11.